05/29/2008 (8:32 pm)
Philippine Growth Slows on Inflation, Falling Exports
The Philippine economy expanded at the slowest pace in six quarters in the first three months of the year, adding pressure on the government to lift spending to sustain growth.
Gross domestic product increased 5.2 percent in the three months ended March 31 from a year earlier, slowing from a revised 6.4 percent pace in the fourth quarter, the National Statistical Coordination Board said in Manila. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected growth of 6 percent.
The economy “succumbed to rising oil prices, slowing U.S. growth, and the negative effects of the strong peso,'' National Statistical Coordination Board Secretary General Romulo Virola said today. Exports and government spending fell as private consumption growth slowed.
Asian governments are battling inflation as a slowdown in the U.S. hurts demand for the region's exports. The Philippine government yesterday cut its 2008 growth target to as little as 5.7 percent, as accelerating inflation damps consumer spending and slows expansion from the fastest pace in three decades.
“Slower demand is hitting Philippine exports,'' said George Worthington, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Thomson IFR in Sydney. “The government is trying to increase spending to cushion the impact of weaker exports.''
The government abandoned its plan to balance the budget for the first time in a decade this year so it can boost spending and reenergize an economy suffering from surging prices, Finance Secretary Gary Teves said yesterday.
Additional Budget
The government may seek an increase to its budget for this year “to arrest the further economic slowdown,'' Economic Planning Chief Augusto Santos said today.
Exports, which make up two-fifths of the economy, dropped 11.1 percent as the peso rose 15.7 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier. Services growth slowed to 6.9 percent.
Consumer spending, which makes up 70 percent of the $118 billion economy, increased 5.1 percent, easing from 6.2 percent the previous three months online cash advance. Government spending fell 1 percent.
The government spent 4.8 percent less than planned in the first three months, a report showed on April 24. April spending was also below target as some agencies were unable to accelerate public works, Budget Secretary Rolando Andaya said May 19.
Agricultural production, which accounts for a fifth of the economy, rose 3 percent from a year earlier, slowing from the 5.7 percent pace in the fourth quarter.
Growth Target
Economic growth this year will probably slow to a range of 5.7 percent to 6.5 percent, down from a previous target of 6.3 percent to 7 percent, the government said yesterday. The Philippine economy grew a revised 7.2 percent in 2007, the fastest annual pace in 31 years.
“Globally, economies are faced with high food and energy inflation which affects consumer spending and the Philippines is no exception,'' said Ildemarc Bautista, head of economic research at Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. in Manila. “It will be hard to replicate the performance last year.''
Inflation, which reached a three-year high of 8.3 percent in April, will likely breach the central bank's target of 3 percent to 5 percent this year because of surging oil and food prices, Central Bank Governor Amando Tetangco said on May 25. The central bank has kept its benchmark interest rate steady since January after five cuts in half a year.
Crude oil traded at an average of $97.79 a barrel in the first quarter, two-thirds higher than a year earlier, and rose to a record $135.09 a barrel on May 22. The Philippines imports almost all of its oil.