07/31/2008 (8:27 am)
Spain
Spain's economy expanded the least in 15 years in the second quarter as record oil prices and the collapse in homebuilding destroyed jobs and sapped spending, the central bank said.
The economy grew 0.1 percent compared with a 0.3 percent pace in the first quarter, the Bank of Spain estimated in its quarterly bulletin today. From a year earlier, the economy expanded 1.8 percent. The National Statistics Institute will provide the first official growth figures for the second quarter on Aug. 14.
Spain is suffering “a more pronounced adjustment, which is particularly intense in private consumption and employment, in a context in which the prolongation of the financial turbulence and the increase in the price of crude are increasing the uncertainty over the economic outlook,'' the central bank said.
Spain's construction industry is struggling to shift a million unsold homes just as banks scale back mortgage lending. Banks' reluctance to lend to each other after the U.S. subprime mortgage market collapsed turned a soft landing for the Spanish housing market into a “sharp correction,'' Finance Minister Pedro Solbes said July 22.
“When you switch to a situation of scarce and more expensive credit, the whole economy feels it,'' said Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist at Intermoney SA in Madrid. “The damage from the credit crunch is spreading quickly.''
Construction Jobs
Unemployment in Spain, where half the euro region's new jobs were created between 2001 and 2006, rose to 10.4 percent in the second quarter, the highest in 3 1/2 years. The number of construction jobs declined 4.5 percent to 2.55 million. Building permits slumped 58 percent in May from the year earlier.
“We're working on the basis that there will be no recession,'' Solbes said today in an interview with Cadena Ser radio. “But we're also working on the assumption that growth will be very close to zero in the next few quarters.''
Solbes last week cut his forecast for growth in 2009 by more than half to 1 percent. The economy will grow 1.6 percent this year after 3.8 percent in 2007, he said easy payday loans.
Across the euro region, economic growth will be “clearly below potential'' by the end of the year, the Bank of Spain said today.
`More Restrictive'
“The effect of a weaker external environment, financial conditions that have become more restrictive as a result of the prolongation of the period of financial instability, the increase in the price of oil and food commodities and the appreciation of the euro'' are slowing Europe's expansion, the bank said. At the same time, “upside risks to inflation in the area are elevated.''
The surge in the price of oil since April will cut about 0.5 percentage point, or 5.5 billion euros ($8.6 billion), from Spain's economic output this year, Solbes said. Oil almost doubled in the past year and touched a record $147.27 on July 11, eroding the spending power of households and companies.
Madrid-based Telefonica SA, the euro region's biggest phone company, posted its biggest decline in six months last week after Vodafone Group Plc Chief Executive Officer Arun Sarin said slower growth in Spain will hurt sales.
Business activity is crumbling across the service industry in Spain, according to a gauge of purchasing managers that fell to a record low in June. Banco Popular Espanol SA, the third- largest Spanish lender, missed analysts' estimates for second- quarter profit July 24 and scrapped its earnings forecast after bad loans jumped.
Borrowing Costs
Manufacturing is also feeling the pinch as higher borrowing costs and falling home-values curb spending. Industrial output fell by the most in six years in May while June car sales were down a third on the previous year.
“Spain is going through a very difficult period,'' Carl- Peter Forster, head of General Motors Corp. in Europe, said July 8. “Real-estate prices are plummeting, and that immediately hits demand for new cars. I would call Spain the most difficult market right now in Europe.''