For the first time in at least 13 years, Tokyo Electric Power Co. may sell dollar bonds as falling demand cuts the size of yen-denominated offerings.
Demand for notes of Asia’s largest power company has fallen as the central bank’s policy of near-zero interest rates drove the average yield on five-year AA rated utility debt below that of benchmark government notes for the first time in at least five years. Bond sales by Tokyo Electric, or Tepco, have fallen to an average of about 30 billion yen ($359 million) each this year, from 50 billion yen in 2007 and 2008.
“We want to utilize foreign bond sales as a tool for raising funds,” Chief Financial Officer Masaru Takei said in a Dec. 7 interview in Tokyo. “We like to consider markets such as these because large bond sales are possible.”
Sales of yen-denominated debt by international companies taking advantage of the world’s lowest borrowing costs rose 34 percent this year to 1.74 trillion yen, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That sent the discount to transfer dollar loans into yen through cross-currency interest-rate swaps to 57 basis points, the biggest advantage in developed markets, and spurred a fourfold gain in dollar bond sales by Japanese companies to $17.6 billion, the data show.
Tepco’s last dollar bond sale was in June 1997, when it raised $500 million of 10-year 7.125 percent eurobonds at a yield 26 basis points more than U.S. Treasuries of similar maturity. A new sale would be the first in the U.S. currency by a non-financial company from Japan since 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Narrower Spreads
The yield spread for Tepco’s debt versus Japanese government bonds narrowed in the last year, giving investors less incentive to buy new securities. Ten-year notes Tepco sold this year were priced at 7 to 9 basis points more than government notes, down from as much as 13 basis points in 2009.
The average yield on five-year AA utility debt fell to 9 basis points above benchmark debt on Dec. 22, from 17 at the start of this year, after declining to 0.1 basis point below government yields on Nov. 15, according to Bloomberg data.
Companies raised less money this year even as they increased the number of sales to 457, the most since Bloomberg started keeping records in 1999. Bond sales dropped 16 percent to 9.6 trillion yen from last year’s record 11.4 trillion yen as slumping confidence prompted the 1,664 companies in the Topix Index to cut capital spending in the final three months of 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Smaller Sales
Gross domestic product will shrink 1.9 percent this quarter as Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s stimulus spending fades, the government-affiliated Economic Planning Association said this month, citing forecasts from economists. The world’s second- largest economy is struggling to end deflation, an extended decline in prices that deters investment by crimping sales revenue and profit margins.
Tepco, rated Aa2 by Moody’s Investors Service and AA by Standard & Poor’s, sold 30 billion yen of 10-year bonds in September priced to yield 7 basis points more than government securities. The company, which supplies power to 28.6 million customers, raised 235 billion yen in eight domestic sales this year, an average 29 billion yen per issue, the smallest since at least 1999, data compiled by Bloomberg show no credit check payday loans. The average size has declined each year since 2007 when it raised 650 billion yen in 12 offerings, or 54 billion yen per issue.
“The spread on utility bonds is at a historic low,” said Yasunobu Katsuki, Mizuho Securities Co.’s chief credit analyst. “There isn’t as much liquidity with respect to utility debt as there used to be.”
Prepared to Pay
Tepco sold 300 million Swiss francs ($313 million) of 2.125 percent notes due in 2017 in March, its first foreign currency bond since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008. They were priced to yield about 14 basis points more than the Swiss swap rate, according to Tepco. The securities have returned 0.8 percent, while the company’s 1.73 percent 2017 yen notes gained 1.9 percent.
Tepco, which has 732 billion yen of debt due next year and 675 billion yen in 2012, is prepared to pay higher rates on overseas debt to raise its profile in global bonds markets, Takei said. “We would like to sell foreign-currency bonds once a year,” he said.
Third-Highest Rating
The company may also turn to bank loans, Takei said. It sold 407 billion yen of new shares in October to fund a 10-year management plan that includes building a new nuclear power station.
The cost to protect the company’s debt from default for five years rose to 42 basis points on Dec. 22 from 34 at the end of last year, after reaching an 11-month high of 58 on Feb. 11. The Markit iTraxx Japan index of default swaps on 50 investment- grade borrowers declined 32 basis points this year to 102. The contracts pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a government or company fail to meet its obligations.
Tepco forecasts profit will fall 40 percent to 80 billion yen in the year to March 2011, while revenue will rise 7.4 percent to 5 trillion yen.
Weaker Yen
The company may return to dollar markets at a costly time as analysts forecast the yen will weaken 12 percent next year, according to a Bloomberg survey of 37 strategists. Japan’s currency has depreciated 3.6 percent to 83.16 yen yesterday since it reached a 15-year high of 80.22 in November as the yield advantage offered by Treasuries expanded.
Ten-year Treasuries rose 55 basis points, or 0.55 percent, this month to 3.35 percent yesterday, while Japanese government bonds of similar maturity were at 1.135 percent on Dec. 22, a five-basis-point decline. Japanese financial markets were closed yesterday for a public holiday.
Sales of so-called Samurai bonds, yen-denominated debt by borrowers outside Japan, jumped to 1.74 trillion yen this year from 1.33 trillion yen in 2009, the biggest increase since 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The increase in Samurai sales helped cut the five-year yen basis swap to minus 63 basis points on Dec. 1, the widest since March 2009. A negative rate means borrowers swapping dollar debt into yen receive a discount. Borrowers typically use cross- currency basis swaps to exchange floating-rate payments in one currency to another.
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