It’s spring, the eternal season of rejuvenation.
And that has some hoping, at last, for a rebirth of the housing market.
It has been a rough two years, with buyers and sellers battered by a wave of foreclosures, tight credit and uncertain job prospects. Government support — in the form of tax credits and federal backing for mortgages — has helped keep sales moving. But now those supports are ending, making this spring a key test of whether the housing market can walk on its own again.
"The next 60 days, they should tell us where we’re going," said Letty Demay, president of the St. Louis Association of Realtors. "Hopefully we’re going to see a good year."
Despite the long, grim slide, there are reasons for optimism: Chief among them is the fact that, for people with cash and confidence in their jobs, it is a good time to buy a house.
Between low prices, rock-bottom interest rates and the tax breaks for first-time homebuyers, housing is as affordable as it has been in years. Prices in St. Louis are back at 2004 levels, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and data tracked by Wells Fargo say the number of St. Louisans who can afford to buy is near 18-year highs.
That is driving a surge of interest this spring. Area real estate agents are busier than they have been in quite some time, Demay said. Phones are ringing. Houses are getting shown.
"I think overall we’ve got a stronger market than we’ve had in the last 18 months," she said.
And while that strength hasn’t yet shown up in sales numbers, which are not yet available for March, it is beginning to show in homes under contract. In the first week of April, the number of pending sales in St. Louis County — homes that are in contract but not yet closed upon — was nearly back to 2008 levels, after plunging 42 percent last year, according to data from Kelsey Cottrell Realty.
The market is strongest at lower price points, where the $8,000 tax credit has more impact and financing is easier to come by. The share of listings under $300,000 that are in contract is actually higher than it was two years ago, said the firm’s co-owner Kevin Cottrell. He said his agents were seeing something they hadn’t in quite some time: homes selling not in weeks, but in days.
"If they’re priced right, they won’t even make it to the weekend," he said.
But some of that strength comes from supports that are soon to be pulled out.
Homes must be in contract by April 30 to qualify for the $8,000 tax credit; and unlike last fall, when it was first set to expire, there is little momentum in Congress for another extension.
Meanwhile, interest rates are widely expected to rise after the Federal Reserve stopped buying mortgage-backed securities at the end of March.
So far, rate increases haven’t happened — Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed rate mortgage climbed from 5.08 percent to 5.21 before falling back to 5.07 a week later — but many experts think they will creep up over the next few months if the economy improves. Some predict six percent by year’s end.
That’s still low by historic standards, but over 30 years every 1 percentage point increase adds roughly 10 percent to the cost of the loan.
That, as much as anything, may push more people to buy this spring, Cottrell said, even if they don’t hit the tax credit’s timeline.
"What does your total cost of ownership look like if rates go above 6 percent?" he asked. "It’s really not about the $8,000 credit, it’s about what you’re going to spend to own the thing."
But the recovery is still tentative, and nobody is expecting the market to roar back, especially in the area that most interests sellers: price.
Prices have bounced back a bit in the past six months but are still well off their mid-decade peaks. Median prices in St. Louis have dropped 6.5 percent over the past three years, said David Stiff, chief economist for Fiserv, a financial data firm. He said he expected a roughly 1 percent decline in both 2010 and 2011. It’ll be 2014 before prices fully rebound here, he said.
"Unemployment is still quite high, and that will remain a drag on housing demand," Stiff said. "We’re expecting prices to bottom out at the end of the year. And then I think it’ll be a pretty slow recovery."
Still, he said, the housing market is on the way to recovery. There may be some stops and starts. Sales may drop again after April 30. But a recovery is coming.
"We’re far closer than we have been," Stiff said.
Just how close, we will find out soon.
Source